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News // Middle East and OPEC

U.S oil production to surpass Saudi Arabia, rival Russia this year, says IEA

23 January 2018 , 16:06David BradleyNeftegaz.RU575

U.S. domestic crude oil production this year is likely to exceed 10 million b/d, surpassing output from Saudi Arabia and rivalling that of Russia, according to the January 2018 report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).


 Rapid production growth in the United States, combined with gains in Canada and Brazil, will drive up non-OPEC supply by 1.7 million b/d in 2018, compared with 700,000 b/d increase in 2017, IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report.


IEA expects global oil demand in 2018 to grow by 1.3 million b/d, «a conservative number that acknowledges the current perception of healthy global economic activity, but also takes into account the fact that benchmark crude oil prices have increased by 55% since June and this can dampen oil demand growth to some extent.»


That's down compared to demand growth of 1.6 million b/d in 2017. «The slowdown in 2018 demand growth is mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices, changing patterns of oil use in China, recent weakness in OECD demand and the switch to natural gas in several non-OECD countries,» IEA said.


Declining Venezuelan production cut OPEC crude output to 32.23 million b/d in December, and declines are accelerating in Venezuela, which posted the world's biggest unplanned crude output decline in 2017, according to the report.


The United States will become the world's top producer of oil & gas over the next several decades, according to a recent analysis by Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.


As a supplement to written testimony, he said IEA is projecting an 8 million b/d increase in U.S. tight oil output from 2010 to 2025. IEA is forecasting the U.S. will become the world's largest LNG exporter by the mid-2020s. A few years after that it should become a net oil exporter.


The seemingly inexorable upward trend of oil & gas production from the 7 most prolific U.S. onshore unconventional plays is likely to continue in February compared with January.


Total oil production in the 7 plays is expected to increase to an estimated 6.55 million b/d in February, compared to 6.44 million b/d in January, an increase of about 111,000 b/d, EIA said.



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